If you want a one-word answer to that question, here it is: No.

Still, it’s good news for the overall economy, and the strength of the economy (or lack of it) is what will ultimately drive home prices up and stimulate the market. It’s all about confidence, and no one has an awful lot of that right now when it comes to the economy, or visions of the future.

Nationally, the unemployment rate peaked in October of 2009, at 10.1 percent (according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics). It’s been settling back downward at a snail’s pace ever since, keeping pace with an agonizingly slow economic recovery.

If the economy was really starting to boom, a .4 percent single-month drop in the unemployment rate might be cause for celebration – and for a mini-stampede of home buyers wanting to take advantage of low home prices and historically low interest rates.

Instead, we have an economic recovery that is just creeping along. It doesn’t inspire much confidence about the future, and confidence about the future is what drives home sales.

Every month, real estate people, financing professionals, homebuilders and many others wait with great anticipation for release of the monthly Case-Schiller home price index from Standard & Poor. 

 The index keeps track, on a month-by-month basis, of home prices across the country.

The most recent index report was released this week. And while everyone was hoping for a healthy uptick in home sales, what they got instead was more of the same.

Home prices in May (measured in 20 major cities) were down 4.5 percent from the same month a year ago. When compared to the previous month of this year, April, home prices were virtually unchanged.

 So what we have is a market that continues to sort of limp along at the same slow pace. No big drops to indicate additional troubles in the area of home prices; but no indications of additional market recovery, either.

Taken market-by-market, prices were up a bit in nine cities, and down a bit in 11 others. Unfortunately for those of us in this part of the country, homes prices were down 1.5 percent in Tampa Bay.

Why aren’t we seeing more recovery after such a long period of market weakness? Here’s a few possible reasons:

• The battle in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and the inability of lawmakers to come up with some sort of strategy or plan – any plan – doesn’t do anything to inspire confidence.
• Because so many problems result from lax lending standards, the current lending standards are much tighter than before, and that keeps some buyers (even qualified buyers) out of the market.
• High unemployment rates (9.2 percent nationally) means thousands of people don’t have the incomes necessary for home purchases.
• The bad economy prevents the formation of new households. People forming new households are people in need of new housing.

 I posted a story a few days ago about the increase in cancelled real estate sales contracts. There are a number of reasons for cancelled contracts (tighter credit standards, tougher appraisals, general nervousness in the market), but whatever the reason, fewer executed contracts obviously means fewer sales.

Were you hoping for a little more optimism in this month’s Case-Schiller home price index? Okay, here are a couple of bright spots: 

• The inventory of homes for sale was 164,000 units, a little more than a six-month supply. That’s the lowest that home inventories have been in a long time. Once we fight through all this stagnant inventory of homes for sale, we’ll see a re-ignition of the new-home construction business, and that will mean new jobs and some good stimulation for the economy.
• The median home sales price for the month of June was up 7.2% for new single-family homes. That could be an indication that homes in the higher price ranges are starting to sell.

If you are a glass-half-full kind of person, the new monthly index figures are a little encouraging. If you are more of a glass-half-empty sort, then the index just means more of the same.

Dancers in the Hacienda Hotel in the 1920s, as depicted by mural artist Chad Leininger

Today, I found several of them in an unexpected place.

I live and work in North Pinellas County, and that’s where I do most of my real estate work — Palm Harbor real estate, Tarpon Springs real estate, Dunedin real estate, Clearwater real estate. I also list and sell Pasco County real estate, but I spend less time there than in North Pinellas County.

This morning, however, I had to go north to New Port Richey in Pasco County to look over a house that I may be listing for sale.  After that, I drove a few blocks to downtown New Port Richey, a place I haven’t visited for awhile.

Wha surprise — it was a treasure trove of murals.

One of them featured the Hacienda Hotel, a 1920s-era hotel that was very popular in its day but which has not served any guests for more than the past decade. I need to do a little research on the Hacienda, and when I do I’ll post a story. I like old hotels almost as much as I like murals.

This particular mural was painted on a side exterior wall of Juan’s Black Bean Cafe by a young artist named Chad Leininger. According to an old newspaper article, there are a total of six murals painted on various walls in downtown New Port Richey.

Most of the characters in the mural are local folk. But the artist included himself and some of his family members as well as actress Greta Garbo and baseball legend Babe Ruth. Can you spot them?

Fruit and veggie vendor's stand at the Palm Harbor Farmers' market

If you are a fan of local farmers’ markets, you should know that Palm Harbor hosts a very nice little farmers’ market on the grounds of the  North Pinellas Historical Museum at the corner of Belcher and Curlew Road.

This area has a number of good farmers’ markets that are fun to attend.  The one in Dunedin is a good-sized market, and Clearwater has a somewhat smaller one.  I haven’t been to the farmers’ market in St. Petersburg, but it’s supposed to be terrific.

But anyway, back to the Palm Harbor market; it happens every Sunday at the museum, and vendors are on hand from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. This past Sunday there was a fruit and vegetable stand, a fellow selling very good-looking fresh fish, a woman selling handmade hats, a could of sandwich vendors and several others.  I mostly just nosed around, but I did buy some bananas and some really nice-looking red grapes.

I’ve written about the Dunedin and Clearwater farmers’ markets in the past — you may want to scroll back a few pages and look those over.  It’s nice to have one in Palm Harbor, and you can combine your visit with a tour of the North Pinellas Historical Museum.

Scottish row houses

If you are a first-time homebuyer, you know how hard it can be to get that initial investment together, even in times like these, when home prices are dropping and interest rates are low.

 Yes, there are first-time-homebuyer programs of various types available through different agencies. But have you ever wondered what other countries do to help people who are buying their first homes?

 If you lived in Scotland, you could get some special assistance through a government program that is just now being expanded for people trying to buy their own homes.

 Here’s how it works:

First-time home buyers find the homes they want, but then only pay between 60 and 80 percent of the purchase price. The government picks up the rest, and holds on to its portion as an equity stake.

When the house gets sold sometime in the future, some of the sale proceeds go to the government to pay off that equity stake. If the homebuyers decide they want to pay off the government before they sell, they are free to do so. The whole arrangement is interest-free.

The Scottish government has been experimenting with the plan, called LIFT, and has made it available in limited areas, funding it with 24 million pounds. It has been so successful that the government is now expanding it to all of Scotland, and upping the fund to 60 million pounds.

Government officials hope the shared-equity idea will help not only first-time homebuyers, but home sellers as well. It is primarily aimed at low-to-moderate-income buyers.

To learn more click on http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/policy/issues/758

Anyone who has been reading this blog in the past few weeks knows that I’m turning into a big fan of light rail transportation. I’ve always had some interest in the idea of light rail trains, but I got even more inspired when I saw stories about the new light rail train system in Phoenix.
A few weeks later, I was in Baltimore and found that I could travel from Baltimore-Washington Airport to downtown Baltimore on that city’s light rail system. It was fast, clean and really cheap. I loved it.
Now I see that the Obama Administration has unveiled plans for high-speed rail service in 10 different regions of the country. And guess what — Florida is one of them!
Now, what Obama envisions is a bit different than the light rail system I dream about for the Tampa Bay area. This plan would link more far-flung cities rather than local communities. But that’s okay with me — if we get a high-speed system in Florida, I think our chances would be really good for a link-up to a new light rail system that could encircle the Tampa Bay communities.
Obama says a high-speed rail system could help unsnarl airport traffic and lighten the loads on our highways. If you have ever tried to drive on I-4 between Tampa Bay and Orlando and then on to Florida’s East Coast, you quickly get the idea.
I can’t count the number of times I’ve had to sit on I-4 while wreckers and police worked to clean up the mess of serious highway accidents somewhere up ahead. I-4 is over-used and under-built in most areas, and speeding cars roaring along in thick packs run into each other with alarming regularity.
 Obama said the plan would use $8 billion in his stimulus package which would be spent over two years. The money would serve as a sort of down payment to get the rail projects started. Then $1 billion would be spent each year over the next five years to move the projects forward.
He says the U.S. Department of Transportation could start awarding funds as early as the end of summer. I think Florida has  a good chance of being an early recipient of those funds — the state has been involved in planning a high-speed rail system since 2001, so we may be a bit ahead of other states.

Chinese sheetrock causing problems

If you don’t know about this Chinese drywall issue, here are a few facts:

Back in the height of the construction boom, around 2005 and 2006, there was so much new construction going on that American drywall manufacturers could not keep up with all the demand.  So builders began looking around for new sources.
They found it in China.

A LOT of Chinese drywall was imported into the U.S. around that time — maybe 10 million square feet of it. A good portion of it ended up in new homes being built in Florida.

Quite a few of those homes were built by Lennar Homes, including the town home purchased by my client.

What’s the problem?

All or most of that Chinese drywall appears to contain high amounts of sulphur and other materials that should not be there. When the drywall is exposed to dampness in the air, it begins to break down and emit a “rotten egg” smell.  The smell is not the only problem; it also corrodes electrical wiring, plumbing and air conditioning equipment.
And it also can cause some respiratory issues.

To their credit, Lennar Homes appears to be standing behind the homes they sold. In some cases, they are moving people out of the homes while they replace the sheetrock as well as the wiring and plumbing.

The problem is that we don’t know at this point what the scope of the problem is.  I saw a news story the other day that said about 300 homes in Florida had been identified as containing the Chinese sheetrock. With 10 million square feet of it having been sold in the US, the problem might be a good deal bigger than that.

I’ll be following the Chinese sheetrock issue and posting news about it here on the blog. Meanwhile, if you’ve had any experiences with the sheetrock, please tell us about it here in the “comments” section.

You’d like to think that the trend of declining values is nearing the bottom. But just when we think that, another month comes along and values decline a bit more.

One good source of home value information is the S & P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Recent numbers from that index showed that home values in January in Tampa Bay were down 4.4 percent from the previous month. That’s a pretty steep drop for a single month, especially when you consider that the home value peak was in July of 2006, almost three full years ago.

Case-Shiller says that prices in this region (the region being Pinellas, Pasco, Hillsborough and Hernando counties) have dropped 37.3 percent in that nearly-three-year period.

So what is propping up sales when values are still going down? There’s several reasons:

GOOD PRICES: According to Case-Shiller, home prices in this area in January were just about the same as prices were in February 2004.  How often can you buy homes at five-year-old prices?

GOOD RATES: Mortgage interest rates are very, very low. How often have you seen the one-two punch of low home prices and low, low interest rates?

FIRST TIME HOMEBUYER ADVANTAGES: If you already own a home and you are either upside-down or have lost much of your equity, you’re not in much of a position to buy a move-up home. But if you are renting and don’t currently own a home, this is a GREAT time to buy. And first-timers are very much in the market right now.

TAX CREDIT: If you are a first time home-buyer (or haven’t bought a new home in the past three years), there is a big fat $8,000 tax credit out there just waiting for you.  When is the last time THAT happened?

SELLERS ARE WILLING TO NEGOTIATE: If we had already reached the bottom of the market and prices were going back up, sellers would be saying something like this: “Time is on my side. The more I wait, the higher my selling prices is apt to be. Why should I give anything away?” Instead they are saying things like this: “Prices are still going down. God knows where this is going. I NEED TO SELL! Bring me an offer, and don’t be afraid to ask for anyhing! Go ahead, try me!”

Of course buyers are in the market.

So we’ll be waiting a bit longer for that end to the home price slide. But in the meantime, homes are selling anyway.

What’s the common denominator? It’s probably that many of them are first-time home buyers.

This is not a very good time for the move-up buyer, who wants to trade up to a larger or nicer home.  Those people already own a home, and the chances are good they may owe more than the house is worth, or have a large enough mortgage that there just isn’t much equity left to finance a move to a nicer, more expensive home.

But for first-time homeowners, this is a great time.  Home prices are lower than they have been in a decade, interest rates are low, inventories and selection are great, and sellers are willing to negotiate in earnest. And don’t forget that big $8,000 tax credit that’s available to first time homebuyers (or to people who haven’t bought a home in the past three years or longer.)

I’ve sold a number of houses so far this year to first-time home buyers, and some of the deals have been REALLY favorable.

Do you have a good first-time home buyer story that you’d like to share? Use the “comment” area at the top of this post  – I’d like to hear from you.