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Pinellas County real estate becomes a sellers’ market

Here’s a recent development in real estate that I don’t think too many people would have predicted: In recent weeks, we’ve sort of quietly shifted from a buyers’ market to a seller’s market.

 That’s right, buyers are having to scramble to get good, solid, timely offers in on the homes they really want to buy. If they don’t, POOF! The house is gone to someone with quicker reflexes.

 And this shift does not just apply to Pinellas County homes; it’s a phenomenon that’s being noticed across the country. The WALL STREET JOURNAL even wrote about it today.

 According to the JOURNAL, buyers are increasingly competing for homes, and even entering into bidding wars. I haven’t seen anything that I would describe as bidding wars locally, but I have had several buyers submitting offers above the asking price, knowing that the house of their dreams won’t stay on the market.

 According to the JOURNAL (and my own sense of what’s going on locally), this sellers’ market is not so much about increasing numbers of sales – it’s more about a lack of good, desirable properties on the market.

 It makes sense when you think about it. Sellers keep their homes off the market because of declining values. If someone owes $300,000 on a home that is now worth $200,000, why put it on the market if you don’t have to?

 And we are now about six years into the housing slump, which means a lot of homes that would have been sold in a more normal market have simply never been listed.

 And there’s another reason, too. Lenders have been extremely slow to put their foreclosed properties on the market. There’s plenty of foreclosed-upon, unoccupied homes out there, in this market and most others, but the lender-owners seem to fear more value declines if they put all those properties on the market.

 It’s a strange market, no doubt. But it is a market with many great opportunities, for buyers and sellers alike.

Tags: Clearwater, Dunedin, Palm Harbor, pinellas county, real estate, sellers' market, Tarpon Springs

Vacation, investment home purchases way up in 2012

 Here’s some more evidence to support the notion that the real estate market – and the economy in general – is on the upswing.

The National Association of Realtors says that the sale of both investmnent homes and vacations home increased by quite a lot in 2011:

• Investment home purchases rose 64.5 percent, from 749,000 in 2010 to 1,23 million in 2011.
• Vacation home sales rose 7 percent, from 469,000 in 2010 to 502,000 in 2011.

(The NAR defines vacation homes as recreational properties purchased for the buyer’s personal use. It defines investment homes as residential properties  purchased with the intent to either rent to others or to keep as investments.)

The market share of vacation and investment homes purchased in 2011 is at its highest point since 2005, NAR reports. The information was contained in NAR’s 2012 Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey.

Accortding to NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, investors used cash to take advantage of the favorable market conditions in 2011.

Lawrence Yun

“During the past year, investors have been swooping into the market to take advantage of bargain home prices,” he said. “Rising rental income easily beat cash sitting in banks as an added inducement.”

Yun also said 41 percent of investor buyers purchased more than one property during the year.

The upswing in sales, Yun said, show that the market is able to absorb the foreclosures that are coming into the market.

“Small-time investors are helping the market heal since REO (bank real estate owned) inventory is not lingering for an extended period,” he said. “Any government program to sell REO inventory in bulk to large institutional companies should be limited to small geographic areas. Even where alternatives are needed, it’s best to rely on the expertise of local businesses, nonprofit organizations and government.”

Yun said 49 percent of investment buyers paid cash in 2011, as did 42 percent of vacation-home buyers. Half of all investment home purchases in 2011 were distressed homes, as were 39 percent of vacation homes. Of buyers who financed with mortgages, Yun said, large downpayments were typical.

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Want to talk about investing in Florida Gulf Coast real estate, or about purchasing the perfect winter vacation home? Get in Touch! 727-643-7100, or beth@bethfrederick.com.

Tags: investor homes, NAR, pinellas county, realtors, vacation homes

Planning on buying a Pinellas County home? We may be seeing the end of historically low mortgage interest rates

 Mortgage rates are still extremely attractive and at or near historic lows. But we may have seen the bottom; the economy is getting better on a number of fronts, and the low interest rates have been as reflection of the weak economy.

 If things get better economically, rates will rise.

 Here are a few factors that indicate the economic picture is starting to brighten:

 RETAIL SALES ARE GOING UP: Retail sales make up about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, so it is a very important factor when trying to predict the nation’s economic future. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales went up to $335 billion in February, an all-time high and the 19^th month out the last 20 to record an increase in retail sales.

 NEW JOBS ARE BEING CREATED: People have to have jobs if they are going to be able to make mortgage payments.  In the past five months, more than a million jobs have been created.

 MANUFACTURING, BUSINESS INVESTMENT, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UP: All of these categories need to improve if an economic recovery is to take place. And all three of them are improving.

 THE FED IS CONFIDENT: The Fed takes steps to keep interest rates low when the economy is suffering. The Fed takes NO action when the economy is doing well or heading in the right direction. The Fed is saying that a recovery is underway and that it is happening faster than expected; that means that further Fed intervention in interest rates is unlikely. And THAT means that interest rates are likely to rise.

 Rates are still good. But they may not be REALLY good for very long if all these trends continue.

 Want to know the best steps for taking advantage of still-low interest rates? Get in touch and we’ll talk about what you want to accomplish – 727-643-7100 or beth@bethfrederick.com.

Tags: economy, interest rates, Palm Harbor, pinellas county, real estate

That new Pinellas County home just got more affordable, thanks to historically low interest rates

     What is it with interest rates? They just seem to get lower and lower. Today’s rates are at historic lows. Is that stimulating home sales? It doesn’t seem so – not that much, anyway.
     How low are interest rates? Right now they are as low as 3.90 percent, or even a bit lower. Last year at this time the average rates for a conventional 30-year mortgage loan were a little over 5 percent, and we thought that was breathtakingly low.
     It is the lowest that interest rates have ever been in this country.
     Just for comparison, rates four years ago were around 7 percent, and we thought that was pretty darn good.
     So, should you actually consider refinancing if you bought your house a year ago? Maybe so.
     Let’s say you bought your house last February, and you financed $200,000 at 5.05 percent. That would make your principal and interest payment $1,079.76.
     Refinance that same $200,000 amount now at 3.87 percent, and your principal and interest payment would drop to $939.90. That’s a monthly saving of $139.86, or 13 percent. Not bad.
     I spent many years in the mortgage business, before I returned to my first love, real estate sales. I know a lot about the ins and outs of home financing. If you have questions about your plans for buying and financing a home, get in touch and we’ll talk – 727-643-7100, or beth@bethfrederick.com .

Tags: Dunedin, home sales, homes for sale, interest rates, Palm Harbor, pinellas county, real estate

You otter live in Dunedin!

You probably know by now that I like Florida’s birds, and I can’t help taking pictures of birds of all types when I come across them in my travels throughout Pinellas County.

But birds aren’t the only wildlife you are apt to see when you drive through Palm Harbor, Oldsmar, Dunedin or other parts of Pinellas County.

This morning I was in a Dunedin neighborhood, and I noticed some loud splashing in a creek that ran behind some houses near the Dunedin Community Center. I walked over to investigate, and saw two otters frolicking in the water.

After I watched them for a few minutes, I realized there were more than just two — there were four in all, splashing in the creek and then chasing each other around one of the backyards.

There’s all kinds of wildlife in Pinellas County, and you usually don’t have to travel very far to find them.

Tags: Dunedin, Florida, otters, pinellas county, real estate, real estate for sale

Interest rates are low, but they won’t always be. Remember that when you consider buying a home in Pinellas County

What single factor may splash cold water on the recovering housing market? According to a CNN/Fortune Magazine report, it could be interest rates.

“What’s that?” you say. “Interest rates are at historic lows. Interest rates seem to be the one single thing that we don’t have to worry about when we think about the housing market.”

Yup, you are correct.  But according to the report, rising interest rates could be looming. And if that comes true, it will retard the housing market recovery.

According to the report, there are a number of factors that should have favorable impacts on a better housing market – strong improvements in the rate of single-family housing starts, more construction permits being pulled, and an upward trend in home sales across the nation, to name just three.

And let’s not forget really, REALLY low interest rates.

But, according to the report, interest rates will inevitably rise. And when they do, mortgage costs will go up. And that will be an impediment to a market recovery.

Those historically low interest rates are around 4 percent right now. But the MEDIAN interest rate, looked at long-term, is more like 9 percent. The report says that when interest rates go up, as they inevitably will, the effect is likely to be like an anchor on the recovery of the housing market.

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Something else that is probably inevitable – people saying, “Wow, I wish I had purchased a home in Dunedin or Palm Harbor when the prices and interest rates were really low.”

That doesn’t have to be you. Call or e-mail me now and we’ll discuss what you want to accomplish home-wise. I’m always available! beth@bethfrederick.com, or 727-643-7100.

Tags: Dunedin, home, interest rates, Oldsmar, Palm Harbor, pinellas county, purchase

Waterfowl love living in Dunedin

As I’ve said before here, I love Florida’s birds — they are one of things that make living here so interesting.

There’s a pond a few steps from my back door, and it attracts all sorts of different birds. There’s a family of ducks that live there, and they are there every day, but other waterfowl pop in for vistits pretty regularly.

I was outside the other day when this big guy dropped in. I think it’s a heron of some sort, but I’m no expert and I couldn’t find a picture on the internet of a bird that exactly matched this fellow, so I’m not really sure what he is. If you recognize it, please post what you know.

What’s the point of bird pictures on a blog that specializes in Pinellas County real estate? Good question. But it’s my blog, and I like birds, so you can expect to see some photos of birds that I come across in Pinellas County. This particular guy is in Dunedin, a little south of Palm Harbor.

Tags: birds, Dunedin, Palm Harbor, pinellas county, real estate, wildlife

Pinellas County real estate: It’s not Silicon Valley

Real estate agents in two very different California markets are thinking that 2012 might be a banner year for high-end real estate sales. Even though these two markets are more than 200 miles apart, they are banking on the same circumstances to boost their high-end sales.

Silicon Valley, around the southern tip of San Francisco Bay

The two areas are San Francisco – or Silicon Valley, to be more specific – and Lake Tahoe, about 200 miles to the east. Real estate agents in both of those markets are thinking that economic developments in Silicon Valley’s high-tech industry might create a huge stimulus to high-end real estate sales in their areas.

A little history; the Lake Tahoe area has long been a favorite vacation spot for Silicon Valley entrepreneurs. Lots of high-tech CEOs and other highly compensated executives have long been drawn to the Lake Tahoe area on the California-Nevada border, just a four-hour drive from the San Francisco area.

One upcoming business event really has captured the attention of real estate agents both in Silicon Valley and in Lake Tahoe; the expected IPO of Facebook. That single event, if it takes place as expected, will create a new generation of Silicon Valley millionaires, many of them young adults with families.

Young, wealthy adults with families are a perfect fit for high-end lakefront properties in Tahoe.

The Tahoe market for million-dollar vacation properties has been depressed during the last few years, as you might expect. But the sales of premium Tahoe properties perked up during the third quarter of 2011, and observers of the market say Silicon Valley high-tech execs were right in the thick of those sales. Sales of those premium vacation properties stretched from a million dollars to four million or more.

Some buyers from the tech industry have snapped up vacation homes recently that run from $1 million to $4 million or more. Observers of the real estate scene in the Lake Tahoe area noted that one expensive lakefront development, Martis Camp, had 20 parcels bought up in the past year by executives for such high-tech companies as Google, Facebook and Apple, all based in Silicon Valley.

Facebook may be the biggest IPO player on the horizon, but it is not the only one. Ernst & Young says that 25 high-tech companies in the San Francisco Bay area are getting their Initial Public Offerings together.

“That’s all just great,” you may say. “But, really, what does all that have to do with real estate here in Tampa Bay? After all, Silicon Valley and Lake Tahoe couldn’t be much further away from here.”

True enough. But here is why I think this discussion is relevant:

Silicon Valley has Facebook, Google, Apple and literally hundreds of other high-tech companies. Most of them are doing really well. Somewhere around 25 of them are planning to go public very soon. When that happens, the high –end real estate markets in at least two separate geographic areas of California will boom. Sales of home in the middle price ranges should benefit, as well.

So where is our Silicon Valley? Where are all the IPOs in Tampa Bay?

There isn’t one, and there aren’t any.

We don’t have a sluggish real estate market; we have a sluggish economy, with little in the way of good-paying jobs and bright financial futures.

I’m delighted for Silicon Valley and for the Lake Tahoe area. But their success may mean little to real estate’s big picture if we don’t find ways of igniting this country’s economy once again.

Tags: economy, high tech, jobs, lake tahoe, pinellas county, public companies, real estate, san francisco, silicon valley, Tampa Bay

Builders more confident about the future

If you are a regular reader of this blog, you know we have been cautiously reporting some positive factors that seem to be contributing to a slowly-emerging, or improving, real estate market.

None of these things have been dramatic, but all of them have been positive – things like an improving employment picture, continuing low interest rates, and increases in the number of pending home sales.

Here’s one more thing to add to the list – an optimistic report from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

The NAHB reported this week that confidence among home builders is on the upswing when it comes to the construction of single-family homes.  The NAHB says it is the third consecutive month that builders have reported increased confidence in the future of single-family home construction.

 “While builder confidence remains low, the consistent gains registered over the past several months are an indication that pockets of recovery are slowly starting to emerge in scattered housing markets,” said NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen.

Nielsen had something else to say, also; he noted that new single-family home sales might be even better if lenders were a little freer with their money. Builders and home buyers are both being negatively impacted by tight credit restrictions, he said.

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said buyers are still cautious because of the large inventories of foreclosed properties in many markets, and they also worry about continuing high unemployment ands the challenges of selling their existing homes.

Even so, Crowe said, “builders are reporting more inquiries and more interest among potential buyers than they have seen in previous months.”

The area of the country where builders are expressing the biggest boosts in confidence levels? Right here in the South.

Tags: hernando county, home builders, new construction, new home construction, Pasco County, pinellas county

Christmas in Palm Harbor

Yes, we celebrate Christmas in Pinellas County. It may not be the cold, crisp, white Christmas we were used to in New England, but it’s stilla  beautiful season. Like anywhere else, the local residents do their best to decorate their homes in bright, seasonal splendor. I’ll try to post some more examples between now and Christmas Day. This house is in Palm Harbor.

Tags: christmas, Christmas lights, homes, Palm Harbor, pinellas county, real estate