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Pinellas County real estate becomes a sellers’ market

Here’s a recent development in real estate that I don’t think too many people would have predicted: In recent weeks, we’ve sort of quietly shifted from a buyers’ market to a seller’s market.

 That’s right, buyers are having to scramble to get good, solid, timely offers in on the homes they really want to buy. If they don’t, POOF! The house is gone to someone with quicker reflexes.

 And this shift does not just apply to Pinellas County homes; it’s a phenomenon that’s being noticed across the country. The WALL STREET JOURNAL even wrote about it today.

 According to the JOURNAL, buyers are increasingly competing for homes, and even entering into bidding wars. I haven’t seen anything that I would describe as bidding wars locally, but I have had several buyers submitting offers above the asking price, knowing that the house of their dreams won’t stay on the market.

 According to the JOURNAL (and my own sense of what’s going on locally), this sellers’ market is not so much about increasing numbers of sales – it’s more about a lack of good, desirable properties on the market.

 It makes sense when you think about it. Sellers keep their homes off the market because of declining values. If someone owes $300,000 on a home that is now worth $200,000, why put it on the market if you don’t have to?

 And we are now about six years into the housing slump, which means a lot of homes that would have been sold in a more normal market have simply never been listed.

 And there’s another reason, too. Lenders have been extremely slow to put their foreclosed properties on the market. There’s plenty of foreclosed-upon, unoccupied homes out there, in this market and most others, but the lender-owners seem to fear more value declines if they put all those properties on the market.

 It’s a strange market, no doubt. But it is a market with many great opportunities, for buyers and sellers alike.

Tags: Clearwater, Dunedin, Palm Harbor, pinellas county, real estate, sellers' market, Tarpon Springs

Walking in Pinellas County is enjoyable, but not highly rated by some

It’s funny; before we moved to Florida we lived in Bath, Maine, a quaint and attractive small city on the Kennebec River. While Bath was scenic and pleasant, I almost never walked anywhere when I lived there.

There were two reasons: (1) Much of the time it was REALLY cold, and (2) it was very hilly. Walking down the hills wasn’t so bad, but walking back UP was no picnic.

When we moved to Florida, I was delighted to be able to increase my walking. It was always warm (okay, maybe TOO warm in the summer, but you can always walk in the early mornings, before the toasty factor gets too high), and the nearly flat terrain means none of those challenging grades.

Since I find walking to be much more enjoyable here than up north, I was a bit surprised to find a website devoted to the “walkability” of various communities, and to note that our area of Florida, Pinellas County, and more specifically Dunedin, Palm Harbor and Tarpon Springs, were rated pretty low on the walking scale.

Even more surprising was that cold, hilly Bath, Maine was rated very highly by this website, www.walkscore.com. Here are the scores:

Bath, Maine: 78 (out of a hundred), “very walkable”

Palm Harbor: 37, car-dependent

Dunedin: 45, car-dependent

Tarpon Springs: 38: Car-dependent

Okay, I actually get this. Our Florida communities are relatively young and they are spread out all over the place. Many lack a real central downtown, and you do need a car to get around and run errands. Bath, Maine (and other up-north older cities) are old, and many were established on the banks of rivers. They were centrally laid-out, as automobiles weren’t even around when they were founded.

Still, if you want my opinion, I’d rather walk right here in Florida. Walking in Maine? No, thanks — especially in January.

By the way, Walkscore.com says it ”helps you find a walkable place to live. Walk Score is a number between 0 and 100 that measures the walkability of any address.”

Tags: Dunedin, Palm Harbor, real estate, Tarpon Springs, things to do, walking

Planning on buying a Pinellas County home? We may be seeing the end of historically low mortgage interest rates

 Mortgage rates are still extremely attractive and at or near historic lows. But we may have seen the bottom; the economy is getting better on a number of fronts, and the low interest rates have been as reflection of the weak economy.

 If things get better economically, rates will rise.

 Here are a few factors that indicate the economic picture is starting to brighten:

 RETAIL SALES ARE GOING UP: Retail sales make up about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, so it is a very important factor when trying to predict the nation’s economic future. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales went up to $335 billion in February, an all-time high and the 19^th month out the last 20 to record an increase in retail sales.

 NEW JOBS ARE BEING CREATED: People have to have jobs if they are going to be able to make mortgage payments.  In the past five months, more than a million jobs have been created.

 MANUFACTURING, BUSINESS INVESTMENT, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UP: All of these categories need to improve if an economic recovery is to take place. And all three of them are improving.

 THE FED IS CONFIDENT: The Fed takes steps to keep interest rates low when the economy is suffering. The Fed takes NO action when the economy is doing well or heading in the right direction. The Fed is saying that a recovery is underway and that it is happening faster than expected; that means that further Fed intervention in interest rates is unlikely. And THAT means that interest rates are likely to rise.

 Rates are still good. But they may not be REALLY good for very long if all these trends continue.

 Want to know the best steps for taking advantage of still-low interest rates? Get in touch and we’ll talk about what you want to accomplish – 727-643-7100 or beth@bethfrederick.com.

Tags: economy, interest rates, Palm Harbor, pinellas county, real estate

That new Pinellas County home just got more affordable, thanks to historically low interest rates

     What is it with interest rates? They just seem to get lower and lower. Today’s rates are at historic lows. Is that stimulating home sales? It doesn’t seem so – not that much, anyway.
     How low are interest rates? Right now they are as low as 3.90 percent, or even a bit lower. Last year at this time the average rates for a conventional 30-year mortgage loan were a little over 5 percent, and we thought that was breathtakingly low.
     It is the lowest that interest rates have ever been in this country.
     Just for comparison, rates four years ago were around 7 percent, and we thought that was pretty darn good.
     So, should you actually consider refinancing if you bought your house a year ago? Maybe so.
     Let’s say you bought your house last February, and you financed $200,000 at 5.05 percent. That would make your principal and interest payment $1,079.76.
     Refinance that same $200,000 amount now at 3.87 percent, and your principal and interest payment would drop to $939.90. That’s a monthly saving of $139.86, or 13 percent. Not bad.
     I spent many years in the mortgage business, before I returned to my first love, real estate sales. I know a lot about the ins and outs of home financing. If you have questions about your plans for buying and financing a home, get in touch and we’ll talk – 727-643-7100, or beth@bethfrederick.com .

Tags: Dunedin, home sales, homes for sale, interest rates, Palm Harbor, pinellas county, real estate

You otter live in Dunedin!

You probably know by now that I like Florida’s birds, and I can’t help taking pictures of birds of all types when I come across them in my travels throughout Pinellas County.

But birds aren’t the only wildlife you are apt to see when you drive through Palm Harbor, Oldsmar, Dunedin or other parts of Pinellas County.

This morning I was in a Dunedin neighborhood, and I noticed some loud splashing in a creek that ran behind some houses near the Dunedin Community Center. I walked over to investigate, and saw two otters frolicking in the water.

After I watched them for a few minutes, I realized there were more than just two — there were four in all, splashing in the creek and then chasing each other around one of the backyards.

There’s all kinds of wildlife in Pinellas County, and you usually don’t have to travel very far to find them.

Tags: Dunedin, Florida, otters, pinellas county, real estate, real estate for sale

Waterfowl love living in Dunedin

As I’ve said before here, I love Florida’s birds — they are one of things that make living here so interesting.

There’s a pond a few steps from my back door, and it attracts all sorts of different birds. There’s a family of ducks that live there, and they are there every day, but other waterfowl pop in for vistits pretty regularly.

I was outside the other day when this big guy dropped in. I think it’s a heron of some sort, but I’m no expert and I couldn’t find a picture on the internet of a bird that exactly matched this fellow, so I’m not really sure what he is. If you recognize it, please post what you know.

What’s the point of bird pictures on a blog that specializes in Pinellas County real estate? Good question. But it’s my blog, and I like birds, so you can expect to see some photos of birds that I come across in Pinellas County. This particular guy is in Dunedin, a little south of Palm Harbor.

Tags: birds, Dunedin, Palm Harbor, pinellas county, real estate, wildlife

Pinellas County real estate: It’s not Silicon Valley

Real estate agents in two very different California markets are thinking that 2012 might be a banner year for high-end real estate sales. Even though these two markets are more than 200 miles apart, they are banking on the same circumstances to boost their high-end sales.

Silicon Valley, around the southern tip of San Francisco Bay

The two areas are San Francisco – or Silicon Valley, to be more specific – and Lake Tahoe, about 200 miles to the east. Real estate agents in both of those markets are thinking that economic developments in Silicon Valley’s high-tech industry might create a huge stimulus to high-end real estate sales in their areas.

A little history; the Lake Tahoe area has long been a favorite vacation spot for Silicon Valley entrepreneurs. Lots of high-tech CEOs and other highly compensated executives have long been drawn to the Lake Tahoe area on the California-Nevada border, just a four-hour drive from the San Francisco area.

One upcoming business event really has captured the attention of real estate agents both in Silicon Valley and in Lake Tahoe; the expected IPO of Facebook. That single event, if it takes place as expected, will create a new generation of Silicon Valley millionaires, many of them young adults with families.

Young, wealthy adults with families are a perfect fit for high-end lakefront properties in Tahoe.

The Tahoe market for million-dollar vacation properties has been depressed during the last few years, as you might expect. But the sales of premium Tahoe properties perked up during the third quarter of 2011, and observers of the market say Silicon Valley high-tech execs were right in the thick of those sales. Sales of those premium vacation properties stretched from a million dollars to four million or more.

Some buyers from the tech industry have snapped up vacation homes recently that run from $1 million to $4 million or more. Observers of the real estate scene in the Lake Tahoe area noted that one expensive lakefront development, Martis Camp, had 20 parcels bought up in the past year by executives for such high-tech companies as Google, Facebook and Apple, all based in Silicon Valley.

Facebook may be the biggest IPO player on the horizon, but it is not the only one. Ernst & Young says that 25 high-tech companies in the San Francisco Bay area are getting their Initial Public Offerings together.

“That’s all just great,” you may say. “But, really, what does all that have to do with real estate here in Tampa Bay? After all, Silicon Valley and Lake Tahoe couldn’t be much further away from here.”

True enough. But here is why I think this discussion is relevant:

Silicon Valley has Facebook, Google, Apple and literally hundreds of other high-tech companies. Most of them are doing really well. Somewhere around 25 of them are planning to go public very soon. When that happens, the high –end real estate markets in at least two separate geographic areas of California will boom. Sales of home in the middle price ranges should benefit, as well.

So where is our Silicon Valley? Where are all the IPOs in Tampa Bay?

There isn’t one, and there aren’t any.

We don’t have a sluggish real estate market; we have a sluggish economy, with little in the way of good-paying jobs and bright financial futures.

I’m delighted for Silicon Valley and for the Lake Tahoe area. But their success may mean little to real estate’s big picture if we don’t find ways of igniting this country’s economy once again.

Tags: economy, high tech, jobs, lake tahoe, pinellas county, public companies, real estate, san francisco, silicon valley, Tampa Bay

Christmas in Palm Harbor

Yes, we celebrate Christmas in Pinellas County. It may not be the cold, crisp, white Christmas we were used to in New England, but it’s stilla  beautiful season. Like anywhere else, the local residents do their best to decorate their homes in bright, seasonal splendor. I’ll try to post some more examples between now and Christmas Day. This house is in Palm Harbor.

Tags: christmas, Christmas lights, homes, Palm Harbor, pinellas county, real estate

Rates down, but down payments up for Pinellas County real estate (and real estate everywhere)

I’ve mentioned here a number of times how low mortgage interest rates are, and how they – along with the lowest home prices in at least a decade – make homes really affordable right now.

But to be fair, there is another side of the coin (isn’t there always?) which makes home-buying more of a challenge than it was in the rock-n-roll days.

I’m talking about down payments.

Home prices may be down, and interest rates may be at historic (or near-historic) levels, but the demand for more substantial down payments is up. It’s all part of the tougher underwriting standards; lenders want to see buyers begin the home buying process with a bigger personal stake in the transaction, and that means larger down payments.

Just a few years ago, it seemed like down payments were going to become a thing of the past. Nothing-down and little-down mortgages were all the rage, and you could buy expensive homes and finance them with big mortgages without having to come up with actual cash – or not much of it, anyway.

Great interest rates are available now, as I’ve written about in the past. But if you really want that rock-bottom rate, you’d better be ready to come up with a 20 percent down payment.  It’s still possible to get a mortgage and put less than 20 percent down, but the rates are going to be higher.

LendingTree came out with a report last week that listed state-by-state average down payments, and the average of all of them was 12.29 percent.

(I know you’re wondering what the average rate is for Pinellas County real estate. Actually, LendingTree didn’t get that fine on rates, but the company DID say what the average down payment is for the state of Florida: 13.16 percent.)

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac want at least 10 per cent down.  If you want the very best rate, you’re going to have to also pay for private mortgage insurance – not part of the down payment, but an upfront cost you can’t avoid.

A Lending Tree spokesperson said, “The reality is when you put less than 20 percent down, you have to pay for some kind of insurance to protect the lender from the higher risk that you’ll default…but private mortgage insurers these days aren’t always willing to do business with low down payments.”

There is some speculation out there that if we are going to continue to have record low interest rates, the mortgage industry may increasingly move toward that 20 per cent down payments.

Tags: down payment, interest rates, pinellas county, Pinellas County real estate, real estate

Rates keep on tumbling – in Pinellas County and elsewhere

Do you think of yourself as a nervy risk-taker? Steely-eyed, firm of hand, able to discern real opportunities when they come along?

If so, and you have a mortgage on your home, you may be starting to think about refinancing. After all, interest rates are at historic lows. Just about 10 days ago, Freddie Mac reported the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages had dropped to 3.94 percent, which was the lowest rate in history.

So why wouldn’t you take advantage of that unbelievably low rate and refinance the old ranch?

Well, because a lot of experts are saying that mortgage rates might go even lower, that’s why. That’s where the steely eyes and the firm hands come into play.

You could re-finance now and take advantage of great mortgage interest rates. OR, you could wait a little longer and (perhaps) take advantage of even lower interest rates.

Rates may vary a little bit in different areas around the country. But rates are WAY down almost everywhere you look, and the end of falling rates may not be in sight yet.

Why do these rates keep coming down? There are several reasons:

The Federal Reserve has been buying up mortgage-backed securities in hopes of forcing interest rates down.

President Obama is trying to strengthen the Home Affordable Refinance Program, which helps home owners refinance their properties – even properties with little or no equity.

The idea behind all this is that if lots of people refinance their mortgages, it could have a stimulating effect on the economy at large.

With current rates hovering around (or even below) four percent, it’s tempting to think about refinancing now. After all, how much lower can the rates go?

Many industry observers believe that you should be able to cut at least one percent off your rate when you re-finance. If you can’t do that, they say, closing costs and fees could counteract the benefits of the refinance.

But if you can talk the lender into waiving many of the fees associated with a refinance, then it may make sense to refinance, even if the new rate is only a half-percent better than the old one.

So… do ya feel lucky? Well, do ya?

Tags: mortgage rates, pinellas county, real estate, refinance